The Probability part of the PSM basically defines Probability values. Since these are subtypes of PropertyValue they require an ExternalPropertyDefinition. I can only think that the Property definition that a Probability is a value of is a "Probability". In the same way that we have defined "Percentage" as a Property definition I think we should also define "Probability".
It may be that we should default the definition attribute of the Probability block with the Probability definition we create.