turned out that this is not really a software issue:

1) they changed the power supply of some component (``change USB power supply to S7 power supply''---um, yeah)

-> connection worked when PC was connected to the Profibus after HMI and PLC were running

2) the PC must not use MPI address 0 (PLC has address 2, HMI as address 7)

-> connection worked also when starting the machines with all parts connected

3) then, initialisation still failed some times, which was fixed by replacing the MPI-USB interface with what seems to be a less defective one.

To summarise: Don't stay on MPI address 0, then blame the hardware.

Good thing that no one wasted time on this :-)