[ipn-devel] Fwd: What lies ahead

[Jonathan C. <jon...@ya...>]

This is a bit long but it's vital that we understand what will
be required of us to defeat terrorism.  Please forward.

Jonathan Carlson

-----------------------------------------
From: Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF  (Ret)

Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through the
lens of military history. I have joined the cast of thousands
who have written an "open letter to Americans."



Dear friends and  fellow  Americans       14 September, 2001

Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last
week's attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not
reeling from surprise. As a career soldier and a student and
teacher of military history, I have a different perspective and
I think you should hear it. This war will be won or lost by the
American citizens, not diplomats, politicians or soldiers.

Let me briefly explain.

In spite of what the media, and even our own government is
telling us, this act was not committed by a group of mentally
deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as such would be among the
gravest of mistakes. This attack was committed by a ferocious,
intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don't take this the wrong
way. I don't admire these men and I deplore their tactics, but I
respect their capabilities. The many parallels that have been
made with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not
only because it was a brilliant sneak attack against a
complacent America, but also because we may well be pulling our
new adversaries out of caves 30 years after we think this war is
over, just like my father's generation had to do with the
formidable Japanese in the years following WW II.

These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we
must not underestimate the power of their moral commitment.
Napoleon, perhaps the world's greatest combination of soldier
and statesman, stated "the moral is to the physical as three is
to one." Patton thought the Frenchman underestimated its
importance and said moral conviction was five times more
important in battle than physical strength. Our enemies are
willing - better said anxious -- to give their lives for their
cause.

How committed are we America? And for how long?

In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent
attack demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals
of warfare taught to most military officers worldwide, namely
simplicity, security and surprise. When I first heard rumors
that some of these men may have been trained at our own Air War
College, it made perfect sense to me. This was not a random act
of violence, and we can expect the same sort of military
competence to be displayed in the battle to come.

This war will escalate, with a good portion of it happening
right here in the good ol' U.S. of A.

These men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear
us. We must not fear them. In spite of our overwhelming
conventional strength as the world's only "superpower" (a truly
silly term), we are the underdog in this fight. As you listen to
the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us for the
march for war, please realize that America is not equipped or
seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our
soldiers are much better than the enemy, and we have some
excellent "counter-terrorist" organizations, but they are mostly
trained for hostage rescues, airfield seizures, or the
occasional "body snatch," (which may come in handy). We will be
fighting a war of annihilation, because if their early efforts
are any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to die to the
last man. Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time
consuming. They have already deployed their forces in as many as
20 countries, and are likely living the lives of everyday
citizens. Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a search
and destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the
public must be patient and supportive until the strategy and
tactics can be worked out.

For the most part, our military is still in the process of
redefining itself and presided over by men and women who grew up
with - and were promoted because they excelled in - Cold War
doctrine, strategy and tactics. This will not be linear warfare,
there will be no clear "centers of gravity" to strike with high
technology weapons. Our vast technological edge will certainly
be helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect
metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the terrorists
themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft -- this will be a knife
fight, and it will be won or lost by the ingenuity and will of
citizens and soldiers, not by software or smart bombs. We must
also be patient with our military leaders.

Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us,
our adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it.
They plan to fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the
battle out until the American public loses its will to fight.
This might be difficult to believe in this euphoric time of flag
waving and patriotism, but it is generally acknowledged that
America lacks the stomach for a long fight. We need only look as
far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen
Giap (also a military history teacher) defeated the United
States of America without ever winning a major tactical battle.
American soldiers who marched to war cheered on by flag waving
Americans in 1965 were reviled and spat upon less than three
years later when they returned. Although we hope that Usama Bin
Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ the
concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the
recent attacks, but! also less audacious "sand in the gears"
tactics, ranging from livestock infestations to attacks at water
supplies and power distribution facilities.

These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone"
forcing the average American to "pay more and play less" and
eventually eroding our resolve. But it can only work if we let
it. It is clear to me that the will of the American citizenry -
you and I - is the center of gravity the enemy has targeted. It
will be the fulcrum upon which victory or defeat will turn. He
believes us to be soft, impatient, and self-centered. He may be
right, but if so, we must change. The Prussian general Carl von
Clausewitz, (the most often quoted and least read military
theorist in history), says that there is a "remarkable trinity
of war" that is composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the
political leadership of the government, and (3) the chance and
probability that plays out on the field of battle, in that
order. Every American citizen was in the crosshairs of last
Tuesday's attack, not just those that were unfortunate enough to
be in the World Trade Center or Pentagon. The will of the
American people will decide this war. If we are to win, it will
be because we have what it takes to persevere through a few more
hits, learn from our! mistakes, improvise, and adapt. If we can
do that, we will eventually prevail.

Everyone I've talked to In the past few days has shared a common
frustration, saying in one form or another "I just wish I could
do something!" You are already doing it. Just keep faith in
America, and continue to support your President and military,
and the outcome is certain.

If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally  certain.

God Bless America

Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF  (Ret)
Former Director of Military History, USAF  Academy

**********************************************************

Please forward this to everyone you know. I hope you agree that
the message is very clear and must be understood by every
citizen of this country.

God Bless America


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