Richard A Lough

I have a problem with Inv. I use a derivation of Keen's Minsky model to assess the changes in the US economy. In a sense the calculation of Inv has always been a problem, but in the past, I've always been able to have a workaround, and thus keep the model simple. The 2020Q2 happened and a $2Tn US budget deficit, and a 30% drop in US GDP. I'm talking principle here, not precision, so don't take these figures as factual. A calculation of PIr then gives a value of 0.73 and present calculation of Inv...

For comparison purposes the Roman population under Julius Caesar grew by 1.3 percent per year, and by 0.7 percent per year under Imperial Rome (my figures, approximate). From recent reading, the economy as modelled, approximates to that under this Sargon dude, circa 2300BC. A Palace Coup may have brought him to power, and he busies himself expanding his Empire. The debts don't get cancelled, as such, the money is needed for the army and bureacracy, but there's a lot of death, destruction, and wasteage...

With a little luck, you now have six tables populated in the newyork2 database. I've often found it harder to get useful data out of a database than putting stuff in, so I need an octave program to do that. Also, the key vectors, the X values, aren't in the database. I'll attach one such program. It's not really suited for public viewing as there are lots of things commented out that get altered for different versions. This is still a work in progress.

You should be able to modify the script fairly easily to point to your preferred directory to receive the /nycEmatrix03.m file. To run the next process under Octave, you should have the Postgresql program set up, and a database with six tables set up. The database name is newyork2. The tables are ematrix01 - ematrix06 (you may need a script to set these up) The octave file needs the libpq and IIRC the libpq-dev resources to interface to the postgres database. Note: the attached file contains optimised...

To explain the process I will post some files. I use Perl scripting language, the Octave application(s) and the Postgresql database resource. I prefer a simple text output of results, though gnuplot can provide graphed output. Rather than try to give an overview, I'll go through the latest process version. The data tends to be repeditive from year to year. This perl script gets updated on a per year basis. When the script is run it prepares a matlab type file (*.m).

Minsky "Pain Points" - I'm extending Prof Keen's 3-sector model ref: "A Model of Endogenous Credit Creation and a Credit Crunch" and now modelling five sectors plus the government and a summary sector. The E matrix is ~80x6 variables/constants, and the present size of the X matrix is 20x6 (I have some X spares to hopefully include some central bank data if needed.) The hard data comes from a distillation of the US I-O tables 15+Gov sectors down to 5. I'm finding the graphical Sumerian model published...

RE pain points - I'll add that to the thread - Variations on the Minsky theme.

Thanks Kresimir - I'll have a look at your file. I'm still thinking about the Sumer Economic system. I've met my first goal for the model, the creation of a natural Seneca curve. What I now need to do is to model the control mechanism they could have used. This gets complicated. Ever built a crystal radio? Turned the gain up until it started to whistle? Oscillate? An oscillator has a loop gain of unity and phase change of 180 degrees. A stable linear system has measurable gain and phase margins,...