Activity for Richard A Lough
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Richard A Lough posted a comment on discussion General Discussion
I have a problem with Inv. I use a derivation of Keen's Minsky model to assess the changes in the US economy. In a sense the calculation of Inv has always been a problem, but in the past, I've always been able to have a workaround, and thus keep the model simple. The 2020Q2 happened and a $2Tn US budget deficit, and a 30% drop in US GDP. I'm talking principle here, not precision, so don't take these figures as factual. A calculation of PIr then gives a value of 0.73 and present calculation of Inv...
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For comparison purposes the Roman population under Julius Caesar grew by 1.3 percent per year, and by 0.7 percent per year under Imperial Rome (my figures, approximate). From recent reading, the economy as modelled, approximates to that under this Sargon dude, circa 2300BC. A Palace Coup may have brought him to power, and he busies himself expanding his Empire. The debts don't get cancelled, as such, the money is needed for the army and bureacracy, but there's a lot of death, destruction, and wasteage...
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With a little luck, you now have six tables populated in the newyork2 database. I've often found it harder to get useful data out of a database than putting stuff in, so I need an octave program to do that. Also, the key vectors, the X values, aren't in the database. I'll attach one such program. It's not really suited for public viewing as there are lots of things commented out that get altered for different versions. This is still a work in progress.
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You should be able to modify the script fairly easily to point to your preferred directory to receive the /nycEmatrix03.m file. To run the next process under Octave, you should have the Postgresql program set up, and a database with six tables set up. The database name is newyork2. The tables are ematrix01 - ematrix06 (you may need a script to set these up) The octave file needs the libpq and IIRC the libpq-dev resources to interface to the postgres database. Note: the attached file contains optimised...
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To explain the process I will post some files. I use Perl scripting language, the Octave application(s) and the Postgresql database resource. I prefer a simple text output of results, though gnuplot can provide graphed output. Rather than try to give an overview, I'll go through the latest process version. The data tends to be repeditive from year to year. This perl script gets updated on a per year basis. When the script is run it prepares a matlab type file (*.m).
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Minsky "Pain Points" - I'm extending Prof Keen's 3-sector model ref: "A Model of Endogenous Credit Creation and a Credit Crunch" and now modelling five sectors plus the government and a summary sector. The E matrix is ~80x6 variables/constants, and the present size of the X matrix is 20x6 (I have some X spares to hopefully include some central bank data if needed.) The hard data comes from a distillation of the US I-O tables 15+Gov sectors down to 5. I'm finding the graphical Sumerian model published...
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RE pain points - I'll add that to the thread - Variations on the Minsky theme.
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Thanks Kresimir - I'll have a look at your file. I'm still thinking about the Sumer Economic system. I've met my first goal for the model, the creation of a natural Seneca curve. What I now need to do is to model the control mechanism they could have used. This gets complicated. Ever built a crystal radio? Turned the gain up until it started to whistle? Oscillate? An oscillator has a loop gain of unity and phase change of 180 degrees. A stable linear system has measurable gain and phase margins,...
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RE pain points - I'll open a new thread - Scaling Minsky
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Earlier version(s) of Sumer01i.mky had a mistake - an extra link in the calculation of Pir. I'm going to have to revisit some recent unpublished work.
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I updated and repaired most of the constants and varable descriptions. I added a title and time axis to the graph. And I added a (this) note. I have a couple of reasons for not prettifying the model. First, to understand the model, users will have to get some hands on experience and in my opinion rearranging things would be a good start. Second, until I understand some things better, I'll do my development work in State Space for these models. Minsky does not scale well IMHO, and facilities such...
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I checked the model against the Godley Table, hoping there was a mistake, because that way there would be a simple fix. With a complex model, expect the unexpected, I guess. More to fix, obviously.
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It is too easy to accidentally add a link where there isn't supposed to be one. I tried setting values of beta (population growth rates) similar to those that might be expected. These values 0.0008 - 0.0013 moved the model into regions of BIBO instability. I expect that something is very wrong.
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I tried again to build with the latest code. The first thing that got flagged up was that the shell pointed to 'dash' instead of 'bash' , so that got fixed. Next was that Minsky could not find cairoSurfaceImage.h - and it wasn't in the /usr/ecolab/include directory - I deleted the /usr and /ecolab* directories and reinstalled ecolab-5.55. That seems to have got me past that problem. Minsky-2.8 still fails but with this error: minsky.o: In function classdesc::enable_if<std::is_enum<json_spirit::Value_type>,...
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Interesting comment, on many levels. I am focussed on making sure that the content of the model shows the Sumerian economy in some sort of logical construct, and I need to do more on that. I take your comment to mean that my graphical representation thus far isn't easily understood, even by someone familiar with the technique. I can do a bit better on that, but my options are limited. The chart really isn't very informative, it just looks prettier than the rest of the data.
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Does debt that is impossible to repay have any validity? Elephant #1 In ancient Sumer, grain is wealth, and silver is a unit of account. It follows that in a model year, to maintain a steady state, consumption exactly equals grain production. A narrative might run something like this.... you are a slave on December 31st, and January 1st is the day of the jubilee. You gain your freedom, and your land is returned to you. But you must borrow 100 units of grain at interest to plant your fields and to...
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The model Sumer01g.mky has really only shown that a simple system can unexpectedly collapse. I would prefer that the model continues to resemble a system operating with fiat money, even though that really isn't the way Sumer runs. I've made some changes to improve the model - rd (E2) the interest paid on deposits is now set to zero. Can you imagine trying to deposit two sacks of barley (money) at your bank and negotiating a rate of interest? To keep working with a 30 year lifetime, the population...
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The easiest practical implementation of the above is to arrange to step the calculations through the process at fractions of a year. This generates some errors in the process, eg 40 years of 3% increases can appear as 3.318 whereas an exact calculation is 3.262. Whether that's a good enough approximation depends on the question asked.
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To get an equivalent representation of Xdot(t) = AX(t) + BU(t) we have : Xdot = [(-X(1) / Taurl + X(2) / Taulc + X(10) * Yr * Inv * Minsky ); # Firms Loan ( X(1) / Taurl - X(2) / Taulc); # Bank Vault (-X(1) * (E(1)+1/Taurl) + X(2) / Taulc + E(2) * X(3) + X(4) / E(17) + X(5) / E(15) - X(6) * L + X(10) * Yr * Inv * Minsky ); # Firms Deposit (E(1) * X(1) - E(2) * X(3) - X(4) / E(17) - E(2) * X(5)); # Bank Capital (+(E(2) - 1 / E(15)) * X(5) + X(6) * L); # Workers Deposit ((Ph + E(3) * (E(7) -(E(12)+E(13)))...
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Next the E values are used to calculate the process variables: Yr = X(7) / E(5); L = Yr / X(8); Ph = (E(23)-E(25))exp((X(11)-E(22)) E(24)/(E(23)-E(25))) +E(25); # Rate of change of wages PIr= (Yr * X(:, 10) + E(2) * X(:, 3) - X(:, 6) * L - E(1) * X(:, 1)) / (E(5) * X(:, 10) * Yr); Inv = (E(27)-E(29)) exp((PIr-E(26)) E(28) /(E(27)-E(29))) +E(29); E(7) = Inv / E(5) - E(14); Taurl = (E(31)-E(33)) exp((PIr-E(30)) E(32) /(E(31)-E(33))) +E(33); # Firms time lag Taulc = (E(35)-E(37)) exp((PIr-E(34)) E(36)...
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I'll post the Matlab file in a later post. In a separate post I classified this economic model as 2+ (A complex System). That is a simplification. The original system is unbounded, time variant, and non- linear, and may include transportation delays if you look deeply enough. With that in mind, and with an objective of a State-Space System in Canonical form, I begin by representing the fixed values chosen by Godley, and by Prof Keen as a single column matrix E. E(1) = 0.2 ; # (rl) Interest on loan...
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Note that this model was selected to give a Seneca curve with a timescale that matches the 30 year reset.
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Some thoughts on the classification of systems and modelling. 1. Simplex Systems - what you see is what you get 2. Complex Systems - the output is unexpected 3. Complicated Systems - typically clocked logic with N stable states 4. Systems with Complexity - Sand piles and Agent based systems 5. Acts of God, or if you are an athiest, Magic. I class the Sumerian Economic System as 2+. I'm not smartest guy in the room, I'm just trying to point to the herd of elephants trying to hide behind the sofa,...
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valid for at least: ecolab.5.D48; ecolab-5.42; ecolab-5.44; and ecolab-5.55. I'm running on ecolab-5.55 with Minsky.1.D45 now, presently on Debian Jessie. (ver 8.3.0 with oldstable updates)
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As far as I can tell, all the ecolabs code works with Minsky.1.D45. I'll have a look at the error messages for other Minsky versions, but for now, I'll see how the Sumer model runs.
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I reverted to Minsky.1.D45, because I know that works, and built my model Sumer01g.mky. I checked everything as the model got built, but now that the model is complete, I get a bunch of errors regarding font sizes, and failed font creations, and out of memory errors when I try to run, which seems odd. I checked the output as a matlab file, and it is correct as far as I can tell. Would giving more memory to the virtual machine fix this or is this an known problem with Minsky.1.D45?
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While I hope to duplicate the results using Minsky, here is the output from a simulation carried out using Octave with a run time of 40 years. Firms Loan: 1623.4064 Bank Vault: 2680.9299 Firms Deposit: 1572.3626 Bank Capital: 64.2998 Workers Deposit: 0.8440 wage : 0.2471 Capital = : 862.1676 Alpha = : 3.3180 Beta =: 1.2213 Price Level (inflation): 0.1681 Employment ratio : 0.7038 The model employs an rl=20% and an rd=17.5% to deliver a Seneca curve that peaks at 33.3 years, and the figures above...
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The Economy to be modelled is that of Ancient Sumer, as recorded in the Middle East, Euphrates Valley, circa 2500BC. The Economic System was in two parts : the Economy; and the Laws and Reguations that formed its Control System. The data available suggests episodic growth culminating in the Sumerian Empire (2100-2000BC) within a compeditive regional environment. This in turn suggests that the Control System was valid, efficient and effective. http://thesoundingline.com/map-of-the-day-the-ancient...
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needs libgdbm-dev - that solves the ecolab issue. Minsku fails with message : /bin/sh: 1: Syntax error: Bad fd number Makefile:102: Boost extension= g++ -c -fPIC -I. -I/home/k-minsky/usr/ecolab/include -DHASH_TCL_hash -DHAVE_LONGLONG -DTR1 -I/home/k-minsky/usr/ecolab/include -I/home/k-minsky/usr/include -I/usr/local/include -I/opt/local/include -I/usr/X11R6/include -DGNUSL -DZLIB -DXDR_PACK -DCAIRO -I/usr/include/cairo -I/usr/include/glib-2.0 -I/usr/lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/glib-2.0/include -I/usr/include/pixman-1...
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OK thanks. I downloaded Minsky.1.D45.tar.gz and got that to compile, so that seems to work. I've downloaded ecolab-5.55 and Minsky-2.8. The ecolab compile fails with the error message: /usr/bin/ld: cannot find -lgdbm collect2: error: ld returned 1 exit status Makefile:236: recipe for target 'bin/ecolab' failed
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The Minsky compile stalls when it cannot find 'cairoSurfaceImage.h' I'm tempted to just download that file and paste it into ecolab/include/ or should I get a newer version of ecolab?
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The sourceforge downloader is too smart for its own good, and the old link no longer works. this link works today : wget https://sourceforge.net/projects/minsky/files/Sources/Minsky-2.8.tar.gz/download Just rename the file form 'download' to Minsky-2.8.tar.gz
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Ok, virtualbox, Debian, TkTable, ecolab, all up and in place. This seems weird, but the couple of minsky downloads I've tried throw up this error : gzip: stdin: not in gzip format Really strange as the other files I downloaded opened ok.
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A useful website, recommends 32GB of virtual hard disk for a Debian installation. http://www.brianlinkletter.com/installing-debian-linux-in-a-virtualbox-virtual-machine/ I suggest saying no to a network install to get the basic machine built more quickly. Once the virtual machine is booted, and if you are familiar where the files should be, it should not be too difficult to complete the installation of the OS.
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Got Debian 8.3.0 from the wayback machine. Only disk 1 is needed as that has an installation image to boot into an install. Note carefully the earlier comment about a 10GB virtual hard drive when setting up your virtualbox machine. It's a scary moment when the install asks to format your hard drive and will not take no for an answer.
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Thanks for the reply. I'm on version g++-6 but there is a g++-7 in testing and unstable. make reports that several variable forms are depracated just before announcing errors. I have run some checks, without resolution, maybe a virtual machine would be a better vehicle.
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TkTable 2.11 is listed under dependencies in the wiki - Building Minsky See also on this thread at 2016-02-01
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I desided to retrace some steps as something odd may have happened. the config.log for TkTable ends with a couple of exit 0's so that seems good. The /use/local/lib seemed to be missing its file. I did a make clean, make I now have libTkTable2.11.so in the current directory (but no TkTable2.11.so there) hence that's the file that gets copied to /usr/local/lib
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Thanks for the link. I hope to add a model to the repository. I'll download one or more of the existing models once I get the source code to compile. I do not intend to modify the source code I have down loaded. I note from comments elsewhere that the implementation of Minsky equations is open to change. That may make transferring results and variables form one model to another quite difficult. We'll see.
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Hi, I'm trying to build the file on Debian Stretch. at the moment (20181107) I'd guess that half the files are available only on Stretch and the rest on Jessie. The only real contetion I have noticed on the packages is that libgsl0-dev is available only on Debian Jessie and that the later package on Stretch is virtual. I seem to have got as far as 'make' on the ecolab package, which gives the following errors: /usr/include/c++/6/array:90:12: note: template<class int="" _tp,="" unsigned="" long=""...
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I've been thinking about Minsky for a while, and in the end, this is about my commitment to open coding. The reason I'm saying this now is that I need some feedback on where I should be going, I am trying to standardise a structure, and I have some code that might be of use to others. I am at a point where I need to run some models within this programs code and ask some questions about the result. If it would be preferable that I simply create a fork and publish the code separately, now would be...
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news collection was missing web pages prefixed by https://
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Bugfix for Mailutil fixes repeated saves to em_...
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A major re-write of the email handling and data...
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Bugfix for news clusters a relocation for the w...
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Bugfix for web tmp directory for news files, cl...
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This is the base installation for ver 0.03, and...
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Commit to move tmp directory below /var/www and...
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Added tutorial and accompanying script to demon...
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bug fixes for spider setup and some flexibility...
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fixes to errors in populating the database tabl...
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new version plus update to the email entry code...
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Fixed some bugs shown when running the tests in...
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Fixed some bugs in email handling and set up a ...
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version with tar gz file updated to the latest ...
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Version to record changes needed to work with p...
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This is TextMine version 0.21 as downloaded fro...
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This commit adds a new version with changes to ...
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Added gzip'd tarfile in the master branch to si...
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Fixed bug from fetchrow_arrayref, updated filte...
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Altered structure to prepare to branch onto ver...
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"Could Minsky be a possible tool to perform such experiments" In its present form...
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