JavaFX: How Much Interest is There? (via Javalobby)

http://www.javalobby.org/java/forums/t100513.html

JavaFX has gotten quite a bit of hype. Not only is it Java's answer to Silverlight, but it is also supposed to be a competitor to Apollo. Part of the goal of JavaFX is an attempt bring Java applets back from the dead. JavaFX, coupled with the consumer JRE and the Java kernel, should allow small, and very fast Java downloads and installs, along with very fast application startup times.

But JavaFX doesn't stop at running just inside the browser. It can also be used to write desktop applications, and even Java ME applications in the future. The JavaFX API is quite powerful, but at the same time, significantly less complicated than the Swing API. JavaFX is more cross platform than Silverlight, and more powerful than, as well as much more cross-platform than Apollo. but how much interest is there really?

Of course, standard disclaimers about "This is not a scientific poll, etc.. ,etc..." apply, but a recent poll on java.net sheds some light on the subject. According to the poll, 15.6% of respondents said they were "very interested" in JavaFX. Unfortunately,, however, 27.6% said they were only ?somewhat interested?, 25.7% said they were "not very interested", and 20.4% said they were "not at all interested". If you are doing the math, you found there is 10.4% left. Those 10.4% had never even heard of JavaFX, by responding with "JavaFWhat"? And since that poll likely only indicates the interest that Java developers themselves have in JavaFX, it doesn't even account for the rest of the developer population, which has probably never even heard of JavaFX.

Despite the fact that JavaFX is receiving quite a bit of press in Java land, with how-to articles and such appearing on the Java desktop community site, actual developer interest, according to the poll (again, with standard disclaimers applied), seems fairly low. This raises a few interesting questions in my mind:

Why is interest in JavaFX--even among Java developers, so low? Is it because most have given up on Java on the desktop and in the browser? Is it because most of them have already decided to adopt Flex?

Is there anything Sun can do to help increase interest in JavaFX within the Java development community?

Is there anything we as a Java development community can do to increase interest in JavaFX among non-Java developers... Like say, Flash developers for example? Or those considering using Apollo?

I look forward to hearing what others in the Java community think on these questions. I, for one, think that JavaFX has a lot of potential--far more potential than the competing technologies. JavaFX can be used in the browser, on the desktop, and even for programming the next generation of Java ME phone applications. Why does the interest level, at least according to this poll, seem quite low?