[DDL-Oracle-users] The Market Is Spiking Higher Over The Near Term
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[DDL-Oracle-users] The Market Is Spiking Higher Over The Near Term
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From: <Res...@Ma...> - 2001-12-07 04:36:16
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<td width="50%"><font size="4"><b><font size="4"><b><font size="2">NEWSLETTER</font></b></font></b></font></td>
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<div align="right"><font size="4"><font size="4"><font size="2">Thursday,
December 7, 2001</font></font></font></div>
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<p><b>Global Quantitative Strategy</b></p>
<p><font size="2"><font size="2"><b><img src="http://www.make-cents.com/images/smclogo.gif" width="60" height="16">
Make-Cents</b></font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br>
</font>Global Quant Stock Ideas for the Month of December.<br>
The sustained global equities rally in November saw all our style-driven
strategies deliver positive returns over the month. Value (+9.75%),
upside reversal (+13.70%) and earnings surprise (+6.31%) all outperformed
our benchmark, the MSCI AC World Free Index, which finished the
month up 6.15% in US dollar terms. Upside reversal performed well
for the second month - which it often does in bear market rallies.
The US dominates the positive and negative stock picks this month.</font></p>
<p><font size="2">We highlight:<br>
VALUE: British American Tobacco<br>
(BATS.L, 561p, Buy), Mayne Nickless<br>
(MAY.AX, A$6.93, Buy) and<br>
Den Norske Bank </font><font size="2">(DNB.OL, NOK 36.80, Buy).
<br>
GROWH: Tyco (TYC, $59.76, Buy),<br>
TSMC (2330, T$83.5, SB);<br>
Kookmin Bank (60000 KS, KRW 49.7, Buy) and<br>
Allied Waste (AW, $12.01, SB).<br>
MOMENTUM: Best Buy (BBY, $73.31, SB); Woolworths (WOW.AX, A$11.50,
Buy),<br>
CSL Ltd (CSL.AX, A$50.82, Buy) and<br>
Sappi (SPP, $10.31, Buy)<br>
UPSIDE REVERSAL:<br>
General Electric (GE, $37.55, Buy) <br>
EARNINGS SURPRISE:<br>
Fannie Mae (FNM, $77.85, Buy),<br>
Freddie Mac (FRE, $65.45, Buy), Tenet Healthcare (THC, $60.70, SB),
and Health Mgmt Assoc (HMA, $19.20, SB). (Europe Morning)</font><font size="2"><br>
</font><font size="2"><font color="#0000FF">for more <a href="http://www.zurichinvestmentgroup.com/signews.htm">Subscribe
here </a></font></font></p>
<p><b><img src="http://www.make-cents.com/images/us.gif" width="30" height="17">
Technical Market Update</b><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"></font><br>
<font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><img src="http://www.make-cents.com/images/bob.gif" width="102" height="102"><br>
Bob Dickey<br>
MANAGING DIRECTOR RESEARCH<br>
for RBC Dain Rauscher Wessels</font><font size="2"><b><br>
</b></font></p>
<p><font size="2">The strong close, good volume, and breakout on the
Nasdaq delay any pullback in the markets for the near term, in our
opinion. The DJIA has more resistance to get through starting around
10,200 but will likely work into the mid-10,000 area over the next
several days. Wednesday (December 5) saw a good number of stocks
break out of their ranges on good volume, most notably, the semiconductors,
which are often a leading group, suggesting rallies ahead for other
tech areas. The market is spiking higher over the near term, and
we believe the strength on Wednesday suggests further strength ahead.<br>
We believe the market is telling us that an economic recovery lies
in the future. Oddly enough, the general market peak was in March
of 2000, while the official recession is said to have started in
March of 2001. The recession was not realized or announced until
November 2001, which is a year-and-a-half after the market peak.
Now, the same thing is working in reverse.</font><font size="2"></font><font size="2"><br>
<font color="#0000FF">for more <a href="http://www.zurichinvestmentgroup.com/openacc.htm">Subscribe
here</a></font></font></p>
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<p><b>Research News</b></p>
<p><font size="2"><b><img src="http://www.make-cents.com/images/scsfb.gif" width="60" height="16">
CSFB</b><br>
</font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">•
</font></font> <font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">MOVERS
& SHAKERS<br>
Stocks surprised many by not giving up much of yesterday's gain.
Lots of trading around positions within sectors today. Treasuries
declined as falling jobless claims and rising factory orders heightened
speculation the Federal Reserve will stop cutting interest rates
after an expected reduction next week. TECH OVERVIEW: Group feels
a little tired, with buyers on the sidelines and some money moving
around within tech.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">•
</font></font> <font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"></font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">US
Portfolio Strategy <br>
Stocks Can Survive with Low Inflation; Focus on Health Care <br>
In a low inflation world, with concerns about balance sheets, the
health care sector is the sector most investors can find some comfort
in. The sector's 14% weighting today will be at or above 25% of
the S&P 500 within a decade, in our view. Unit growth driven
by new products and demographics will easily exceed GDP for the
foreseeable future and pricing for these unique products and services
are likely to continue to expand beyond general inflation.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">•
</font></font> <font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"></font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The
stock market continues to display an extremely bullish technical
pattern, with big gainer days and little loser days. Yesterday,
on the heels of Wednesday's monster rally, the DJIA and S&P
500 lost only a little ground; and the Nasdaq actually finished
to the upside. When the stock market staircase features steep risers
(upside days) and level steps (consolidation days), investors are
implicitly showing an unwillingness to collect profits.</font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br>
</font><font size="2"><font color="#0000FF" size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">for
more </font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><font color="#0000FF"><a href="http://www.zurichinvestmentgroup.com/signews.htm">subscribe
here</a></font><br>
</font></font></p>
<p><font size="2"><b><img src="http://www.make-cents.com/images/sargus.gif" width="60" height="16"><br>
Argus Market Report</b><br>
</font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">•
MARKET REVIEW<br>
• </font></font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Ratings
Change: Raising rating on Lucent to BUY from HOLD.<br>
</font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">•
</font></font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">
Ratings Change: Reducing near-term rating on BBBY shares to HOLD
from BUY on valuation basis.<br>
</font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">•
</font></font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">
Highlights from the Monthly Retail Review.<br>
</font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">•
</font></font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">
Value Stock: Lowering 2001 and 2002 EPS estimates on HOLD-rated
FON.</font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br>
</font><font size="2"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"></font></font><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="2"><font color="#0000FF" size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">for
more </font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><font color="#0000FF"><a href="http://www.zurichinvestmentgroup.com/signews.htm">subscribe
here</a></font></font></font></font></font></font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"></font></font></font></font></font></p>
<p><font size="2"><b><img src="http://www.make-cents.com/images/sdain.gif" width="60" height="16"><br>
RBC Dain Rauscher Wessels</b><br>
</font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">•
(AEOS) American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. <br>
Buy-Aggressive ; Price Target: $35.00<br>
SOFTLINES RETAIL<br>
WARM WEATHER AND PROMOTIONS HURT NOVEMBER SALES</font></font></p>
<p><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">*Comps decline
significantly, driven by warm weather and sparse retail traffic.<br>
*Both men’s and women’s categories produce negative comps.<br>
*Inventory levels remain under control through promotional activity.<br>
*We are lowering estimates; weather remains the wild card.</font><font size="2"><font size="2"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><font color="#0000FF"><br>
</font><font size="2"><font size="2"><font color="#0000FF" size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">for
more </font><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><font color="#0000FF"><a href="http://www.zurichinvestmentgroup.com/signews.htm">subscribe
here</a></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></p>
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