End Game Scenario

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cnyballer
2010-03-27
2013-03-27
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  • cnyballer
    cnyballer
    2010-03-27

    I feel like the #'s for my End Game Scenario page is goofy or maybe I don't understand the #'s.  I've run calc path to victory and delete previous calcs.  There are 128 End game paths at this point but the # of paths for entries is much higher.  Also, why do I have blank entries in tables?  Here is a screen shot:

     
  • cnyballer
    cnyballer
    2010-03-27

    Not sure why the image doesn't show up so trying again and adding the text…


    End Game Scenarios (128 Remaining)
    Do you still have a chance?Sort: Number of Paths | Probability of Winning
    First Place (View All) 
    Bracket Name # of Paths
    (Click to View) p(W)
    For Baby V       1036 (809%) 28.74%
    MAC 1 922 (720%) 7.20%
    You Can’t Handle The Truth 556 (434%) 18.30%
    Wildcats 478 (373%) 28.25%
    Ship the boomsauce 472 (369%) 5.99%
    boner 232 (181%) 11.53%
    162 (127%) 0.00%
    34 (27%) 0.00%
    16 (13%) 0.00%
    Second Place (View All) 
    Bracket Name # of Paths
    (Click to View) p(W)
    For Baby V       704 (550%) 17.87%
    Wildcats 616 (481%) 10.41%
    You Can’t Handle The Truth 508 (397%) 10.33%
    Ship the boomsauce 472 (369%) 21.40%
    MAC 1 452 (353%) 2.77%
    Bella’s Bracket 306 (239%) 18.58%
    boner 240 (188%) 11.06%
    MacBracket 188 (147%) 6.42%
    Theo Huxtable 176 (138%) 1.16%
    100 (78%) 0.00%
    86 (67%) 0.00%
    30 (23%) 0.00%
    30 (23%) 0.00%
    Third Place (View All) 
    Bracket Name # of Paths
    (Click to View) p(W)
    You Can’t Handle The Truth 508 (397%) 11.97%
    Wildcats 474 (370%) 7.84%
    LadyTakesItAll 428 (334%) 11.96%
    Ship the boomsauce 360 (281%) 1.16%
    MacBracket 340 (266%) 16.67%
    Theo Huxtable 318 (248%) 12.95%
    MAC 1 284 (222%) 12.89%
    224 (175%) 0.00%
    CAC 210 (164%) 18.58%
    174 (136%) 0.00%
    164 (128%) 0.00%
           164 (128%) 0.00%
    128 (100%) 0.00%
    Waldo 108 (84%) 5.99%
    24 (19%) 0.00%

    Last Place (View All) 

     
  • Rob J
    Rob J
    2010-03-27

    Yep, definitely not right. I suggest truncating the end_games, possible_scores, and possible_scores_eliminated, then running

    php calculate_paths_to_victory.php
    
     
  • cnyballer
    cnyballer
    2010-03-27

    Thanks! That was the solution.

     
  • cnyballer
    cnyballer
    2010-03-28

    Is there a way to remove Unpaid brackets from the end game scenario list? 

     
  • cnyballer
    cnyballer
    2010-03-28

    Lastly, something isn't computing right with the end game scenarios.  There are a couple brackets in my pool that have a chance to come in first still yet they aren't showing as having a chance. 

     
  • Michael Flynn
    Michael Flynn
    2010-03-29

    As a temporary measure, try to run the following SQL in phpMyAdmin or sql client of choice:

    truncate table end_games;
    truncate table possible_scores;
    truncate table possible_scores_eliminated;
    truncate table probability_of_winning;

    After that, go to the admin section of the site and click on the "Recalculate Paths To Victory" link. Comment here if that corrected your end game scenario data.

     
  • Rob J
    Rob J
    2010-03-29

    In general, if there is ever a problem with this page, you just need to rerun the calculation. If that doesn't fix it, truncate the tables flynn mentioned above and rerun the calculations.

    If the individual number of paths match the total number of paths at the top, then the calculation is correct.

    fwiw, we have not had to redo ours after the sweet 16. The first time we ran it failed because we used the web interface rather than the command line. We had to delete the junk from this partial calculation and redo it.

    I'm not familiar with mysql, but this can argue for doing the whole thing as a transaction. Another poster also mentioned doing more of the calculation in SQL rather than PHP in order to speed it up.

     
  • cnyballer
    cnyballer
    2010-03-29

    I truncated the tables before and I did it again just for fun and it doesn't fix my issue.  Here are screen shots.  For example looking at First Place , there should be 3 brackets that have a chance at first, yet its only showing 2.  And the bracket called "boner" shouldn't be showing up anyway because it is an Unpaid bracket.  Brackets "For Baby V" , "You can't handle the truth", and "LadyTakesItAll" should all have a shot at first.  THoughts?


     
  • Rob J
    Rob J
    2010-03-29

    Can't tell from the screens. Do you mind PMing me the link to your site?

    I would just click view all and click the numbers on the left to see the possible standings. Then check the ones you said should be showing up.

     
  • Rob J
    Rob J
    2010-03-29

    I just looked at it. It's all because boner is in there.

    You can't handle the truth would replace boner for first. lady takes it all has no shot at first.

     
  • cnyballer
    cnyballer
    2010-03-29

    That's true, my bad.  Ok, so how do I get non-paid brackets out of possible scenarios?

     
  • Rob J
    Rob J
    2010-03-29

    And it does not filter out paid when running calculate_paths_to_victory.php. so that is explains why boner is there. fix should be simple.

     
  • Rob J
    Rob J
    2010-03-29

    I just checked in a fix. looks like it works, to me. Can someone else test this before releasing?

     
  • cnyballer
    cnyballer
    2010-03-29

    Cool, I tested it on my db and it works!

     
  • TheBaldOne
    TheBaldOne
    2010-03-29

    One thing I noticed is that the Recalculate Paths To Victory AND delete previous calculations (From sweet 16) doesn't actually delete previous calculations.  You still need to clear the tables manually before you run it or your numbers will not be correct.

     
  • TheBaldOne
    TheBaldOne
    2010-03-29

    Well now that I have downloaded the latest calculate_paths_to_victory.php it deletes the old info and everything looks good.

     
  • Michael Flynn
    Michael Flynn
    2010-03-29

    The latest calculate_paths_to_victory.php only does the calculations for paid brackets. The current code will not do the calculations for the exempt brackets. I think the changed SQL statements might need to have the where clause modified to be "where paid <> '0'". This way only the unpaid brackets are omitted. Open to comments before I commit my changes to the codebase.

     
  • Rob J
    Rob J
    2010-03-29

    I would be fine with exempt in there, but it was hard to decide what would please most users. So, I just went with paid.

     
  • TheBaldOne
    TheBaldOne
    2010-03-29

    The one I downloaded (68 I think) keeps exempt in the calculation.  This is good for my setup since I made everyone exempt at the start and only change them to paid as I get the money.  This way everyone can see the standings even though I haven't received a check yet.

     
  • John Holder
    John Holder
    2010-03-29

    Gotta have exempt in the standings, that's what exempt means play fully without pay.  My entire bracket isn't for money… the big boss puts up a free day off to the winner, and everyone is exempt from paying.

     
  • TheBaldOne
    TheBaldOne
    2010-03-29

    That is a nice prize.  I need to drop some hints to my boss for next year.  ;)

     
  • cnyballer
    cnyballer
    2010-03-29

    I think if my boss knew I'd be on permanent vacation.  I agree we should make exempt part of the scenario.

     
  • John Holder
    John Holder
    2010-03-29

    Checked in rev.70, allowing paind and exempt in standings, since rev.69 broke my whole tournament.

     
  • John Holder
    John Holder
    2010-03-29

    (trying again, deleted my own message because of the many typos)

    I'm curious about the scoring myself….
    One guy in my bracket isn't eliminated, he has 65 points and 16 possible remaining on West Va.
    I have 76 point remaining, and my only ones left are 16 possible with West Va.
    So, if West Va wins, I beat him, and if they lose, I beat him. He is eliminated, but the scoring algorithm isn't taking that into account. So, was it supposed to take this into account? If so, there is a bug.

    (I have 3 other brackets in this same situation with duke…. 1 guy will win it all if duke beats west va. regardless of the final game, but 3 other duke pickers are listed as still not eliminated…)

     
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